A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
